Annual energy margin
—Delivery potential, not hourly serviceFrom one machine to a national system
Plan power for an
East African country.
Explore one unnamed country—not the combined East African grid. Adjust an illustrative 10 TWh annual demand, choose real energy sources, and test whether the portfolio covers energy and peak demand.
Peak + reserve margin
—A selected-duration stress testIllustrative annual cost
—Capital recovery + operations + fuelReliability verdict
UnverifiedAnnual totals cannot establish 24/7 service.New: lower-loss recovery hub
Use the six-paper research brief to compare energy paths at the same delivered load. Keep conversion savings separate from grid power displaced by local sources.
01Define the demand
Starting point: a hypothetical country using 10 TWh per year with a 2 GW customer peak. No country statistics or regional aggregate are implied. Every demand and reserve setting is editable.
Boundary: one illustrative country’s grid-delivered electricity. This is not Kenya, an official forecast, or a combined East African power pool. Off-grid demand, unrecorded use, new connections, and future electrification must be added explicitly when adapting the scenario.
02Choose the generation
An illustrative resource menu—not an existing fleet. Replace capacity and output assumptions with site-specific evidence. Geothermal is optional and may not be feasible in the country or location you choose.
| Energy source | Capacity GW | Annual factor % | Peak contribution % | Annual energy TWh |
|---|
Default evening: solar 0%; wind 10%; geothermal 90%; hydro 35%; fuel-backed 90%. All are hypothetical availability assumptions, not firm capacity credits. Water, geology, weather, fuel logistics, and operating constraints must be checked locally. Imports are not modeled.
03Shift energy with storage
Batteries do not generate new energy. Their losses increase the generation needed, and their stored energy limits how long they can help.
Usable capacity is AC energy delivered by the battery. The peak screen assumes the chosen starting charge; it does not establish that charging is available before the event. Charging and discharging share the selected power rating.
04Keep the economics honest
Every cost below is an editable placeholder in constant U.S. dollars (USD)—not a researched supplier quote, a project budget, or a profit forecast. Full modeled generation costs are retained; surplus energy earns no assumed revenue.
Edit construction, operating, and finance assumptions
| Source | Construction $/kW | Fixed operations $/kW-year | Variable + fuel $/MWh | Cost recovery years |
|---|
Battery power and energy costs are complementary components, not two all-in battery prices. Battery life has its own capital recovery period; costs of replacements or degradation beyond that simplified annualization are not simulated. Grid investment and operating costs are placeholders, not a transmission plan.
How to use this
1. Change demand or the generation mix. 2. Compare the two margins. 3. Try the 72-hour stress test. 4. Review costs and the limits of the model before drawing conclusions.
GW measures power right now. GWh measures stored energy. TWh measures energy across a year. A positive energy margin does not mean electricity is available at every hour. Changes last until you reset or reload; download a report to keep your assumptions.
Sources, assumptions, and model boundary
- This edition has no claimed national statistical baseline. The 10 TWh demand, 2 GW peak, 15% physical loss, generation portfolio, storage, and all costs are illustrative assumptions for a single unnamed country.
- It is not a forecast for East Africa as a whole, Kenya, or any particular national utility. Set demand, losses, resources, and costs from local evidence before relying on results.
- Geothermal is a resource option, not an assumption that every East African country has an accessible commercial resource. Hydro output is drought-sensitive; fuel-backed power requires fuel and has emissions.
- Costs are USD placeholders, not local tariffs or construction quotations. Imports, off-grid demand, unrecorded consumption, electrification growth, hourly dispatch, outages, emissions prices, and transmission routes are not calculated.
- Standardized 8,760-hour planning year. Annual capacity factors are not peak capacity credits. A positive annual and peak screen does not establish reliable 24/7 supply.
Show the calculation rules
- Annual generation (TWh) = capacity (GW) × annual factor × 8.76. Fractions use 0–1, not 0–100.
- Battery discharge = usable GWh × annual cycles / 1,000. Charging = discharge / round-trip efficiency. Storage loss = charging − discharge. Battery discharge is never added as new generation.
- Annual delivery potential = (generation − storage loss) × (1 − grid-loss fraction). Annual energy margin = this potential − annual demand. Actual hourly load served is not calculated.
- Battery stress contribution = min(power GW, usable GWh × starting charge fraction / stress hours). Peak contribution after grid losses = (sum of generator GW × peak fractions + battery contribution) × (1 − grid-loss fraction).
- Peak target = customer peak × (1 + reserve fraction). The chosen peak must be at least the annual average load. The peak screen assumes the same available generator power throughout the event.
- Battery charging must not exceed annual generation; charging hours + discharge hours must not exceed 8,760 at the selected power. These are necessary checks only, not proof that energy is available at the right times.
- Annual cost = capital × capital recovery factor for each asset + operating and fuel costs. CRF = r / [1 − (1 + r)−n]; at zero discount rate it is 1/n. Energy-accounted demand = min(annual demand, nonnegative delivery potential). The displayed $/MWh uses this annual-only denominator, which can overstate service and understate a reliability-adjusted cost.
Next engineering gate: regional, hourly demand and weather; validated storage dispatch; outage and fuel scenarios; grid stability and transmission studies; then a site-specific cost and permitting assessment. This planner is a conversation starter, not an investment recommendation.